In a thought-provoking article for New Eastern Europe, Jennifer S. Wistrand reflects on the enduring human impact of the conflicts in the South Caucasus over the past three decades. The turmoil in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh has led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people in the region.
The recent seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023 sets the stage for the potential ‘return home’ of internal refugees who were displaced after Armenia took control of the region in 1994. This shift could potentially boost Azerbaijan’s economic development, given its wealth of oil resources.
However, Wistrand notes that the future for Armenia and Georgia appears less optimistic. The burden of supporting a large number of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh will have significant social, political, and economic consequences for Armenia, a country already facing challenges. Similarly, the displacement of Georgians from Abkhazia and South Ossetia has had lasting impacts on Georgia.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the situation in the region has become more complex with the arrival of over 100,000 Russian migrants in Georgia and Armenia. While these migrants have brought economic benefits to Armenia, worsening relations between Moscow and Yerevan could potentially lead them to leave Armenia.
In Tbilisi, the situation is especially delicate. Wistrand notes that Georgia finds itself in a precarious position due to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The presence of a large Russian migrant population in Georgia raises concerns about potential conflict and the emergence of a ‘parallel society’ within the country.
Wistrand highlights the challenges faced by the South Caucasus, particularly Georgia and Armenia, with the influx of more migrants, displaced individuals, and growing uncertainty and instability in the region.
Prospects of reconciliation
Can peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan be achieved now that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has seemingly been addressed? Ahmad Alili delves into the socio-political complexities of both countries and identifies key factors that may influence the prospects for reconciliation.
Historically, imbalances of power among conflicting parties have hindered the possibility of sustainable and fair peace settlements, raising doubts about the feasibility of a ‘dignified peace’ following Azerbaijan’s military success. Additionally, differing levels of political consensus within Armenia and Azerbaijan present further obstacles.
External geopolitical interference poses a real threat to stability in the region, prompting Alili to suggest that greater cooperation among the South Caucasus countries could strengthen their position against external pressures.
Georgia’s embattled democracy
As Georgia approaches parliamentary elections, the return of pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili to the political arena has sparked concerns amidst a backdrop of growing public disillusionment and social unrest.
With EU candidacy status attained in 2023, Georgia faces a critical juncture as Ivanishvili’s influence over the ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD), may jeopardize the country’s path towards closer ties with the West. Ivanishvili’s resurgence is viewed as a move by Russia to maintain control over Georgia and obstruct its Euro-Atlantic integration.
However, Ivanishvili’s alignment with GD is uncertain, and he may choose to support new parties with anti-Western leanings or pro-Russian sentiments. The fragmented opposition, including the pro-Western United National Movement, struggles to garner widespread support from voters.