The Bay of Bengal: A Prelude to Cyclonic Turmoil
The Bay of Bengal is on the cusp of experiencing the first cyclonic storm of the pre-monsoon season earlier than expected, setting the stage for a dramatic weather event. This impending storm, predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is forecasted to rapidly intensify into a severe cyclone, marking a significant meteorological event for the region.
As the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts weighs in on the situation, it appears that the IMD’s monsoon onset scenario remains consistent. However, the overall rainfall outlook may fluctuate due to the impending cyclonic disturbance. The low-pressure area responsible for this disturbance has evolved into a well-marked depression, positioned about 800 km South-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh) and 810 km South of Canning (West Bengal) as of this morning.
Anticipated Cyclone Impact
The depression is projected to veer northeastwards and intensify into a cyclone over the East-Central Bay by Saturday morning, further escalating into a severe cyclone by the evening of the same day. The IMD foresees the severe cyclone making landfall between Sagar Island and Khepupara, crossing over Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal coasts around midnight on Sunday. Simultaneously, another low-pressure system over the South-East Arabian Sea has migrated into South Kerala but is likely to weaken as attention shifts to the dominant cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal.
Weather Outlook
Over the next five days, the IMD has issued a forecast detailing widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds for regions encompassing Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka. Additionally, isolated to scattered light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds are expected in Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.
Localized heavy to very heavy rainfall is anticipated for Kerala & Mahe today, with similar heavy downpours expected in Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on Friday. Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, along with Kerala, are likely to experience heavy rainfall on Saturday.