China and Russia, two of the most powerful rivals of the United States, have recently pledged a “new era” of partnership, sparking speculation about the depth of their relationship and its economic impact. This alliance between the neighboring giants, with their vast landmasses and shared border, has the potential to reshape global dynamics.
Historically, China and Russia have had a complex relationship marked by rivalry. However, Western sanctions on Russia have brought them closer together, as Moscow seeks powerful allies to navigate around the sanctions, and Beijing aims to challenge US dominance and establish a new international order.
The recent meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin underscores the significance of this evolving relationship, especially in light of US sanctions and diplomatic visits. Russia’s reliance on China as a trade partner and supplier of military components highlights the asymmetric nature of this partnership, with Russia needing China more than vice versa.
While China benefits from access to Russian oil and a competitive fuel source in the Middle East, it is wary of Russia becoming overly dependent and potentially compromising its own interests. India, a key buyer of Russian oil, also plays a role in this dynamic, as it navigates its own geopolitical concerns amidst the growing alliance between China and Russia.
Risk to Indian interests
India’s increasing reliance on Russian oil has bolstered its economy but raises concerns about the implications of closer ties between Russia and China. The potential alignment of Russia and China could threaten India’s interests, particularly in light of the ongoing border disputes and strategic concerns in the region.
India fears that China could leverage its influence over Russia to pressure Moscow into scaling back its dealings with India, including crucial defense deals like the sale of the S-400 missile system. This dynamic underscores the delicate balancing act that Russia faces as it navigates its relationships with both India and China.
As India aligns with the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy and seeks to counter China’s influence in the region, the shifting dynamics between Russia and China present a complex challenge. Moscow’s need for economic support and political alliances makes it a strategic player in this evolving landscape, with implications for regional stability and global power dynamics.