The Baltic States, facing the looming threat from Russia, are solidifying their trust in the European Union (EU) and NATO as guardians of their national security ahead of the 2024 European Parliament elections. This shift in perspective has led to fewer eurosceptics and is expected to result in a higher voter turnout on 9 June, according to a Eurobarometer survey from April 2024.
Security concerns stemming from Russia’s aggression and the recent history of conflicts have made defence and security top priorities for Baltic voters. The tough stance of the EU towards Russia has earned it praise in the region, while issues like migration and agricultural policies have also influenced voter sentiments.
The Baltic farmers are concerned about low food prices, limited EU subsidies, and proposed environmental regulations impacting their livelihood. The upcoming EP elections are expected to see a shift towards right-wing parties, with populist radical right parties gaining ground.
Lithuania: Nationalist party spreads its wings
In Lithuania, security issues are of utmost importance to the voters, reflecting the historical trauma and current threats faced by the nation. The ruling Homeland Union is expected to secure a significant number of seats, despite facing declining popularity due to various internal and external factors.
The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party is leading in popularity, while the National Alliance, the far-right party, is looking to secure a seat in the European Parliament. Discontent among certain demographics is being addressed by parties like the National Alliance, focusing on anti-European sentiments and traditional values.
Estonia: Far-right parties smell victory
Estonia is witnessing a rise in right-wing populist parties like the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) and Isamaa, capitalizing on social inequality and economic insecurity. EKRE’s strong organizational foundations and charismatic leaders have positioned them as formidable contenders in the upcoming elections.
The economic woes and controversial policies of the ruling parties have paved the way for right-wing parties to gain traction in Estonia, with EKRE aiming to send Martin Helme to Brussels to champion Estonian sovereignty and traditional values.
Latvia: Cautious Eurosceptics
Latvian voters are increasingly recognizing the importance of political participation in the current geopolitical climate, with EP elections viewed as a key battleground for the nation’s political heavyweights. Despite controversies surrounding ruling parties, the Coalition and the Union of Greens and Farmers are expected to secure significant mandates.
The National Alliance and Latvia First are representing Eurosceptic sentiments, with the electoral landscape witnessing a mix of established and new political figures vying for seats in the European Parliament. Voter turnout is expected to be higher than in previous elections, indicating a growing interest in the political process.
Prospects
Discontent with ruling parties is creating opportunities for opposition parties, particularly on the far-right, in the Baltic States. Estonia’s EKRE and Isamaa, along with Lithuania’s National Unification party, are poised to make significant gains in the 2024 European Parliament elections, reflecting a shift in political dynamics in the region.