The Rise of Cyclone ‘Remal’: A Powerful Force of Nature
As the monsoon season approaches, the Bay of Bengal is witnessing the birth of a new cyclone named ‘Remal’. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that this cyclone has intensified into a severe cyclone and is currently located over the North Bay, approximately 290 km South-South-West of Khepupara and 330 km South of Mongla in Bangladesh. Additionally, it is positioned 270 km South-South-East of Sagar Islands, 390 km South-South-East of Digha, and 310 km South-South-East of Canning in West Bengal.
The Intensification of ‘Remal’
‘Remal’ is projected to continue its path in a northerly direction, intensifying further as it moves towards its destination – the coasts of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal. The IMD forecasts that the cyclone will cross the region between Sagar Island and Khepupara, close to South-West of Mongla in Bangladesh, by midnight as a severe cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds of 110-120 km/hr, gusting up to 135 km/hr. The possibility of the cyclone reaching an extremely severe status is not ruled out.
Favorable Conditions and Potential Challenges
The intensity of ‘Remal’ is expected to be fueled by favorable conditions such as lower wind shear over the North Bay and the presence of hot sea-surface temperatures exceeding 32℃. However, the proximity to land, particularly the rugged terrains of Myanmar and the marshy Sunderbans, may pose challenges to its intensification process.
Impact on Monsoon Progress
Additionally, the severe cyclone is likely to impact the progress of the monsoon in various regions. It has already brought monsoon rains to parts of the South-West, Central, and North-East Bay areas. The IMD is closely monitoring its trajectory to determine if it will accelerate the onset of monsoon in North-East India ahead of its usual schedule.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in the coastal districts of West Bengal and eastern districts adjacent to Bangladesh, with isolated instances of extremely heavy rainfall. The peak rainfall activity is anticipated between Sunday noon and Monday noon, followed by continued heavy rainfall in the region.
Regional Impact and Outlook
The impact of ‘Remal’ is not limited to the immediate vicinity, as it is projected to trigger rainfall in North Coastal Odisha, Mizoram, Tripura, South Manipur, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Tripura. The potential for isolated heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall exists in these regions over the next few days.
The onset of monsoon over Kerala may face delays due to the influence of ‘Remal’. The IMD’s outlook suggests the formation of a weak cyclonic circulation off North Kerala, which could affect rainfall patterns along the coasts in the first week of June. Despite this, widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds are expected in various regions over the next week.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the emergence of cyclone ‘Remal’ is a notable event in the meteorological landscape of the Bay of Bengal. As it continues to intensify and move towards the coasts of Bangladesh and West Bengal, its impact on regional weather patterns and the progression of the monsoon will be closely monitored. Stay tuned for updates on the development and aftermath of this powerful force of nature.