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In a surprising turn of events, Rishi Sunak is rumored to be announcing a July 4th general election, as per insider sources from the Conservative camp. Despite the prevailing opinion polls predicting a significant defeat for his party, the UK Prime Minister is making a bold move, along with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, signaling a lack of faith in waiting for a potential economic upturn later in the year, as relayed by party officials.
The decision, communicated by Sunak to his cabinet on Wednesday afternoon, goes against the grain of polls showing a substantial lead for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party. The formal announcement is expected around 5 pm, causing a stir in the political landscape.
According to the FT’s latest poll tracker, the Conservatives are currently polling at 23%, a level on par with the lowest point during Liz Truss’s short-lived premiership in 2022.
Most cabinet members were caught unawares by Sunak’s election call strategy. They were hastily summoned for the Wednesday meeting, amidst rampant election speculations in Westminster. Even Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron had to rush back from Albania due to the unfolding developments.
Should Sunak proceed with the early election, he will be facing an uphill battle to secure a fifth consecutive win for the Conservatives, a journey that began with Cameron’s coalition government back in 2010.
Key members of the Conservative party acknowledge the fiscal constraints that Hunt would face in the autumn, with limited room for tax cuts, compounded by the delay in the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, as per market speculations.
Sunak, however, aims to leverage the UK’s fragile economic resurgence. Recent data indicates the country’s emergence from the previous year’s technical recession, marked by rapid growth since 2021. The inflation rate has now subsided to a government-labeled “normal” status of 2.3%, down from a peak exceeding 11%.
An early election call by Sunak is viewed as an attempt to quell internal party rifts and counter the recent defections of Tory MPs to Labour, setting a fresh course for the Conservatives.
Labour, on the other hand, seeks to redeem itself after the 2019 debacle under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Led by the centrist Sir Keir Starmer, the party aims to rebuild its economic credibility and strengthen its ties, particularly with the City of London.
The upcoming elections hold the promise of a fierce battle, as Labour eyes gains from a weakened Scottish National Party in Scotland and the Conservatives in England and Wales. The centrist Liberal Democrats also pose a challenge in the Tory strongholds of the south.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party emerges as another contender, threatening the Conservative voter base. In the previous election, Farage’s Brexit party refrained from contesting in several constituencies, a scenario that might not repeat this time.