As the headlines faded and the world turned its attention elsewhere, the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023 left a deep scar. The exodus of Karabakh Armenians from their ancestral land marked a tragic end, with the less fortunate facing uncertain futures in Baku or worse. Russian peacekeepers lost their lives during the offensive, raising questions about Azerbaijan’s motives. Was there a deliberate attempt to eliminate witnesses? The aftermath saw apologies and acceptance, but Russian military bloggers were left feeling betrayed.
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#ArtsakhStrong slogan in Yerevan, Armenia, 2020. Image: Garik Avakian / Source: Wikimedia Commons
Stalin’s Legacy
Armenia stands as one of the oldest Christian countries, with a rich history dating back to late Antiquity. The struggle for independence and survival has defined the Armenian people through centuries of turmoil and adversity. The era of modernity brought with it the quest for nationhood and self-determination, a journey fraught with challenges and tribulations.
Within the intricate web of geopolitics, Armenia’s fate intertwined with Soviet power, leading to the establishment of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and the designation of Nagorno Karabakh as part of the Azerbaijani SSR. Stalin’s materialist logic shaped the political landscape, seeking to quell ethnic tensions and promote stability.
While Baku boasted a vibrant cosmopolitan atmosphere in the early 20th century, political upheavals and purges reshaped Azerbaijan’s leadership, ushering in the era of the Aliyev dynasty. The current regime in Baku, under President Ilham Aliyev, reflects a blend of personalistic power and strategic alliances.
Unfolding Conflict
The legacy of past conflicts and power struggles set the stage for the resurgence of the Karabakh conflict in 2020. Armenian forces found themselves outmatched by Azerbaijani military superiority, backed by powerful allies and advanced weaponry.
The abrupt end to the second Karabakh war in November 2020 marked a turning point, with Russian peacekeepers entering the fray and reshaping the geopolitical dynamics of the region. The delicate balance of power between Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan underscored the complexities of the conflict.
The aftermath of the war left Armenia and Azerbaijan at the mercy of external actors, highlighting the fragile nature of regional stability. Political maneuvering and shifting allegiances further complicated the prospects for peace and reconciliation.
Geopolitical Chessboard
The geopolitical chessboard in the South Caucasus continues to evolve, with implications reaching far beyond the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The interplay of regional powers and global interests shapes the future of Karabakh and its people.
Amidst the turmoil and uncertainty, the Armenian people face a pivotal moment of reckoning, as Moscow’s influence wanes and new alliances emerge. The legacy of past betrayals and shifting loyalties cast a shadow over the prospects for peace and stability in the region.
As history unfolds in the midst of conflict and power struggles, the fate of Karabakh remains uncertain, a reminder of the enduring impact of small wars in distant places on the global stage.