As we enter the hurricane season, experts are predicting an above-average year in terms of storm activity. Typically, we see around 14 named storms with wind speeds exceeding 65 kilometers per hour. However, this year, we are expecting 17 to 25 storms, with four to seven potentially becoming major hurricanes with winds of at least 178 kilometers per hour. This increase in storm activity is attributed to high ocean heat and the development of La Niña weather patterns.
The potential impact of these storms is significant, with just one landfalling hurricane capable of setting back years of socio-economic development. For example, in 2017, Hurricane Maria cost Dominica 800 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product. The risk posed by hurricanes is not to be underestimated.
Benefits of Monitoring and Early Warning Systems
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) tracks hurricanes through its Tropical Cyclone Programme. Thanks to improved early warnings and disaster risk management, hurricane-related fatalities have significantly decreased in recent years. However, Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean remain disproportionately affected by these storms.
The WMO and its partners are focusing on enhancing early warning initiatives for small islands through the Early Warnings For All initiative. They are advocating for more coordinated and targeted investment in early warning systems at the upcoming International Conference on Small Island Developing States in Antigua and Barbuda.
From 1970 to 2021, tropical cyclones, including hurricanes, have been the leading cause of reported human and economic losses globally. Despite this, the death toll has decreased significantly from over 350,000 in the 1970s to fewer than 20,000 between 2010 and 2019, with reported economic losses totaling $573.2 billion in the same period.
Understanding Tropical Cyclone Naming
Naming tropical cyclones plays a crucial role in simplifying tracking and discussing specific storms, especially when multiple storms are active simultaneously. This practice helps avoid confusion among meteorologists, the media, emergency management agencies, and the public.
The World Meteorological Organization has strict procedures for naming tropical cyclones, varying by region. In the Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere, cyclones are named alphabetically, alternating between male and female names. In other regions, names follow the alphabetical order of the countries.
“We need to be especially vigilant this year due to near-record ocean heat in the region where Atlantic hurricanes form and the shift to La Niña conditions, which together create the conditions for increased storm formation,” emphasized WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.